MOST NOTEWORTHY: Comcast, Time Warner Cable, YRC Worldwide and Syniverse were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Soleil upgraded shares of Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) to Buy from Hold on improving fundamentals, as they believe the economic stimulus package should drive consumer demand in 2H08.
Stephens upgraded shares of YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ: YRCW) to Overweight from Underweight as they believe management is making meaningful changes.
Syniverse (NYSE: SVR) was raised to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan. The firm upgraded shares based on accelerating organic growth from consumer wireless data usage.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Deutsche Bank upgraded NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) to Buy from Hold.
Old Dominion Freight Line (NASDAQ: ODFL) is a less-than-truckload multi-regional motor carrier, providing direct service to 47 states within the South, Northeast, Midwest and West regions of the U.S.A. and to parts of Canada. Through marketing and carrier relationships, it provides service to and from the remaining states, as well as international services around the globe. The company operates a fleet of some 4,600 tractors and 17,900 trailers from nearly 200 service centers. YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ: YRCW) is a major competitor.
Old Dominion surprised the Street last week, with Q4 EPS of 42 cents and revenues of $358.7 million. Analysts had been expecting 42 cents and $345.3 million. Management also guided FY08 EPS to $2.00-$2.05 ($1.93 consensus).
Goodrich (NYSE: GR), a supplier of components, systems and services to the commercial and general aviation airplane markets, is recently up $1.14 to $68.20 on unconfirmed takeover chatter. GR has market of $8.4 billion with long term debt of $1.7 billion. GR October 70 calls have traded 41 times on transaction volume of 884 contracts above its open interest of 449 contracts. GR October option implied volatility of 29 is above its 26-week average of 25 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risk.
YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ: YRCW), a transportation holding company with brands including Yellow Transportation, Roadway, Reimer Express, Meridian IQ, New Penn, USF Holland and USF Reddaway, is recently up $0.45 to $28.25 on unconfirmed chatter Deutsche Post has made a $41 bid for YRCW. YRCW has a market cap of $1.5 billion with $903 million in long-term debt. YRCW call option volume of 5,697 contracts compares to put volume of 319 contracts. YRCW October option implied volatility of 45 is above its 26-week average of 34 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.
Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Expedia (EXPE), YRC Worldwide (YRCW), Fiserv (FISV), and select radio stocks were today's noteworthy upgrades:
JP Morgan upgraded Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE) to Overweight from Neutral on expectations for U.S. bookings growth and margin stabilization.
YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ: YRCW) was raised to Neutral from Underperform based on valuation.
Fiserv (NASDAQ: FISV) was upgraded to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC following the CheckFree (CKFR) acquisition.
Banc of America upgraded Citadel Broadcasting (NYSE: CDL), Cox Radio (NYSE: CXR) and Entercom Comm (NYSE: ETM) to Neutral from Sell as they believe it is time to cover short positions with the expected Q3 weakness likely priced into shares. They caution that this upgrade is not a buy signal as downside risk remains...
OTHER UPGRADES:
Wachovia upgraded Cabela's (NYSE: CAB) and KBR Inc (NYSE: KBR) to Outperform from Market Perform.
Baird raised Lear (NYSE: LEA) To Outperform from Neutral.
Nokia (NYSE: NOK) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Pacific Crest upgraded shares of eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) to Outperform from Sector Perform.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Amazon.com (AMZN), YRC Worldwide (YRCW), SanDisk (SNDK), Activision (ATVI), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) and KB Home (KBH) were today's noteworthy downgrades:
BWS Financial cut Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) shares to Sell from Hold on valuation.
YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ: YRCW) was assumed with an Underweight rating, down from Neutral, as JP Morgan is cautious on the industry's L-T-L pricing.
UBS downgraded SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) to Neutral from Buy on valuation.
Gabelli downgraded shares of Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) to Hold from Buy to reflect their expectation of increasing competition for some of the company's key titles.
Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) was downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at HSBC on valuation.
Matrix believes the prolonged weakness in the housing market is eliminating economic profits and cut KB Home (NYSE: KBH) to Strong Sell from Sell...
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Citigroup and ABN Amro cut Rio Tinto Group (NYSE: RTP) to Hold from Buy.
Merrill Lynch downgraded J.M. Smucker (NYSE: SJM) to Sell from Neutral.
First Albany downgraded shares of Travelzoo (NASDAQ: TZOO) to Neutral from Buy.
It's been a month since YRC Worldwide's (NASDAQ: YRCW) annual shareholder meeting, when CEO Bill Zollars said that he would look to the East for future expansion. Look no further:
Yesterday, YRC announced that it has entered a preliminary deal to acquire Shanghai Jiayu Logistics Limited, one of the largest providers of less-than-truckload ground transportation services in China.
The push into China more than doubles the size of YRC Worldwide in that country, from 1,400 employees to more than 3,000. While details of the transaction were not provided, Zollers said earlier this year that acquisitions in China would cost up to $100 million. With more than 30,000 customers, 1,600 employees, 300 tractors and a network of over 3,000 vehicles in Shanghai's possession, YRC Worldwide found a steal.
When comparing the assets to MeridianIQ, the Company's logistics segment -- now called YRC Logistics -- it's monumental. YRC Logistics has 18,000 transactional and 350 contractual customers around the globe and accounted for 6% of YRC Worldwide's total operating revenue in 2006 ($162.5B). Today's acquisition more than doubles the assets and overall customers of the Logistics segment alone, with the bulk now in China. Zollers said he expects to see significant revenues from China to hit the bottom line in 2008.
The transportation giant already has a jointly-owned air freight importer and a jointly-owned logistics' company in the region, but the acquisitions are far from over. Zollars told analysts back in March to expect two acquisitions this year, a ground hauler and a logistics company.
One down, one to go. Kevin Shult is a writer for TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required)
MOST NOTEWORTHY: YRC Worldwide (YRCW), BEA Systems (BEAS), Isle of Capri Casinos (ISLE), Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) and Avaya (AV) were today's more noteworthy downgrades:
Wachovia downgraded YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ: YRCW) to Market Perform from Outperform citing the challenging LTL freight environment and continued integration issues.
UBS downgraded shares of BEA Systems (NASDAQ: BEAS) to Neutral from Buy on valuation as they believe expectations for a takeover or investor activism is already priced into shares.
Matrix believes Isle of Capri (NASDAQ: ISLE) is expensive on a performance-adjusted basis and recommends investors sell shares into the recent rally, downgrading shares to Sell from Hold.
JP Morgan cut Assured Guaranty (NYSE: AGO) to Underweight from Neutral on valuation.
JMP Securities downgraded Avaya (NYSE: AV) to Market Perform from Strong Buy, as the firm doesn't expect a superior offer to the Silver Lake/TPG bid...
YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ: YRCW) -- implied volatility and call spike on LBO speculation. YRCW, a transportation holding company with brands including Yellow Transportation, Roadway, Reimer Express, Meridian IQ, New Penn, USF Holland and USF Reddaway, is recently up $0.49 to $40.03 on LBO speculation. YRCW will be speaking at Merrill Lynch's Transportation Conference next week. YRCW has a market cap of $2.2 billion with $1 billion in debt. YRCW reported quarterly March 2007 revenue of $2.3 billion. YRCW call option volume of 6,382 contracts compares to put volume of 207 contracts. YRCW June option implied volatility is at 44, July is at 36 above its 26-week average of 32 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.
Biomet (NASDAQ: BMET) -- implied volatility-risk increases into June 8th shareholder vote. BMET a designer, manufacturer and marketer of joint replacement products announced on 12/18/06 a consortium including the Blackstone Group, Goldman Sachs and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts will purchase BMET for $44 a share in cash. Institutional Shareholder Services recommended BMET holders vote down the $10.9 billion private equity deal. BMET shareholders are to vote on 6/8/07. Indiana state law requires a 75% vote for the acquisition to be approved. BMET over all option implied volatility of 17 is above its 5-month average of 12 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.
Transportation company YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW) issued 1Q earnings news...and about the only good news was that there were any earnings at all. The numbers, however, do not tell the full story. Like all other trucking transportation companies, YRC Worldview was beset by slack demand, horrible winter weather and rising fuel costs.
In YRC's case, most of the decline in earnings was due to acquisition and reorganization charges to complete the purchase of USF Reddaway and USF Bestway. Operating revenue was $2.3 billion, not much changed from 1Q 2006 operating revenue of $2.4 billion. But operating income of $20 million for 1Q 2007 was a drop of $68 million from 1Q 2006. Diluted EPS for 1Q 2007 was $.02 compared with 1Q 2006 diluted EPS of $.71. Ouch!
The 1Q 2007 EPS figure includes $.17 per share impact due to severe winter weather, but excludes $.18 reorganization charges. It will take several more quarters for YRC Worldwide to right itself.
Given the numbers for 1Q, YRC Worldwide has revised its FY guidance. It now forecasts adjusted, diluted EPS of $4.00-$4.20 with consolidated revenue of over $10 billion. Interest expense is a best guess estimate at $90 million, with capital expenditures running $375-$400 million. The company will continue to focus on cost reduction strategies. Not surprisingly, the stock was down $.69 on the earnings news, closing recently at $38.74.
Barron's Online's "Inside Scoop" column reported that Hess Corporation (NYSE: HES) CEO John Hess recently bought more $1M worth of Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW), and now directly owns 23,350 DOW shares.
The Financial Times reported that the European Union is concerned that Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) may be skirting European privacy laws by keeping data on Internet searches for too long.
OTHER PAPERS:
The U.S. Navy awarded an $11.9M contract to Force Protection Inc (NASDAQ: FRPT) to build and deliver 14 next-generation armored vehicles, according to the Associated Press.
From BusinessWeek's "Inside Wall Street" section:
In spite of its problems, Amgen Inc (NASDAQ: AMGN) is a long-term value play, according to Joseph Battipaglia, chief investment officer at Ryan Beck's Washington Crossing Advisors unit.
Big truckers see YRC Worldwide Inc (NASDAQ: YRCW) as a tempting asset play with "compelling earnings power and potential value," according to Justin Yagerman of Wachovia Securities.
The morning opened lower as first quarter GDP came in at 1.3% annual rate. GDP numbers are one of the significant indicators to pay attention to. With the housing slowdown, the total economy –everything we make- grew at a 1.3% annual rate. Normally economists like to see that number between 3-4% rate. Since the growth rate is still positive, we are not in a recession, but it is down significantly from 2.2% last quarter and below the 25 year average of 3.1%. They still get to revise the GDP one more time in about a month, so we will see what happens then.
The NYSE had volume of 2.7 billion shares with 1,396 shares advancing while 1,834 declined for a loss of 10.13 points to close at 9,705.36. On the NASDAQ, 2.1 billion shares traded, 1,168 advanced and 1,834 declined for a gain of 2.75 to 2,557.21.
Stocks moving today included: Cummins (NYSE: CMI) jumped $10.15 (12%) to $96.14 on earnings. YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ: YRCW) skidded down $3.97 (-9%) to $41.77 on lower shipping profits. Continental Airlines (NYSE: CAL) lost altitude of $2.53 (-7%) to $36.25 on a downgrade. The Goodyear Tire (NYSE: GT) rose $1.91 (6%) to $34.41 after announcing it will be closing more plants. OfficeMax (NYSE: OMX) fell $2.10 (-4%) to $49.31 on a downgrade.
In options there were 4.1 million puts and 4.8 million calls traded for a put/call open interest ratio of 0.84. General Electric (NYSE: GE) moved volume on the May 37.50 calls (GEES) with over 48,000 contracts and also had action of the June 37.50 calls (GEFS) with over 32,000 options. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) rose 3.5% on higher software sales and saw volume on the May 30 calls (MSQEK) with 43,000 contracts and the January 30 calls (WMFAF) with 33,000 contracts. Tyco International (NYSE: TYC) traded July 27.50 calls (TYCGY) over 24,000 times. Kevin Kersten is an Options Analyst with InvestorsObserver.com. Do you have any deadwood in your portfolio? Check out the 18 Warning Signs That Tell You To Dump A Stock.
Disclosure note: Mr. Kersten owns and or controls a diversified portfolios of long and short positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.
Low-cost airline Jetblue Airways Corp. (NASDAQ: JBLU) to report Q1 earnings. Will Jetblue follow Southwest Airlines Co.'s (NYSE: LUV) disappointing report (which caused two analyst downgrades)? Or is the recent increased investment buy George Soros a sign that Jetblue is doing better?
The Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 10:30 a.m. Will Boeing discuss Airbus's decision to halve the price of its A350 planes in order to become more competitive with Boeing's 787 Dreamliner?
Market darling Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) will also report Q2 earnings, conference call at 5 p.m.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: YRC Worldwide Inc (YRCW), Baidu.com, Inc (BIDU), an several e-commerce names were today's more notable initiations:
Prudential started YRC Worldwide Inc (NASDAQ: YRCW) with an Underweight rating and $41 target. The firm said recent organizational changes could be a distraction in what it expects to be a challenging first-half of 2007.
Susquehanna views Baidu.com Inc (NASDAQ: BIDU) as a strategic holding in its China portfolio and expects the company's massive brand value to drive continuous growth; shares were initiated at Susquehanna with a Positive rating.
Oppenheimer initiated three e-commerce names today:
eBay Inc (NASDAQ: EBAY) was initiated with a Buy rating and $38 target
Overstock.com, Inc (NASDAQ: OSTK) and Amazon.com, Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) were initiated with Neutral ratings.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
In addition to YRC Worldwide, Prudential initiated several companies in the transportation sector:
Con-Way Inc (NYSE: CNW) was started with an Underweight rating and $47 target
Canadian Pacific Railway (NYSE: CP) and Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) were initiated with Overweight ratings
Canadian National Railway (NYSE: CNI) was initiated with a Neutral rating and $47 target.
Jefferies initiated Forest Oil Corp (NYSE: FST) with a Buy rating and $42 target.
Citigroup believes aQuantive, Inc (NASDAQ: AQNT) will be one of the key beneficiaries of the strong secular growth in online advertising and they note that shares are trading in the lower half of its 52-week range; shares were initiated with a Buy rating and $33 target.
I've been reading the January 2007 issue of Material Handling Management. In this issue, there is a fine article by Tom Andel that discusses the current realities regarding hydrogen fuel cell use in commercial operations utilizing lift truck fleets. The MHM article brings home some truths of just how close we are to finally beginning the replacement of currently accepted methods of providing the energy to operate various industrial equipment. Consumers (and investors), sometimes don't realize that when it comes to heavy duty technology conversions in our day to day world, most often those changes are implemented and perfected on the industrial side well before the consumer side gets its hands on them. Such seems to be the case in the matter of hydrogen fuel cells.
MHM research suggests that while increasing improvements are still being aggressively sought, hydrogen fuel cell technology has reached the point of being completely practical in replacing some of today's current energy provision systems. The single largest hurdle that developers are addressing is in making the technology more economical. With current incentive programs for energy provision change over, it's almost a dead heat between hydrogen fuel cells and current methods in use. Developers have already begun their marketing programs while the scientists and engineers continue to push towards their goals for economical hydrogen deployment absent of outside financial incentives. Their goal is to make hydrogen fuel cell technology a stand alone proposition.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: YRC Worldwide Inc (YRCW), AutoLiv Inc (ALV) and Chevron Corp (CVX) topped today's lists of downgrades:
YRC Worldwide Inc (NASDAQ: YRCW) was downgraded by Credit Suisse to Neutral from Outperform and to Underperform from Neutral at Baird, both citing valuation.
AutoLiv Inc (NYSE: ALV) was downgraded to Sell from Hold at Citigroup with a $55 target to reflect North American production schedules concerns as well as the possibility of a slower-than-anticipated share buyback program.
Chevron Corp (NYSE: CVX) was downgraded to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank with a $65 target, citing valuation.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Pali Capital downgraded Warner Music Group Corp (NYSE: WMG) to Sell from Neutral, with a $19 target. The firm believes estimates are too aggressive and Warner shares are now overvalued.
JP Morgan downgraded shares of Electronic Arts Inc (NASDAQ: ERTS) to Neutral from Overweight, citing valuation.
Sanders Morris downgraded Playboy Enterprises (NYSE: PLA) to Hold from Buy, as they believe there is little visibility in the marketplace as to the timing of a Time Warner-based (TWX) SVOD agreement. The broker thinks management will issue below the consensus' 2007 guidance, or none at all, which they think will trigger bearish sentiment.
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MOST NOTEWORTHY: Comcast, Time Warner Cable, YRC Worldwide and Syniverse were today's noteworthy upgrades:
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Wal-Mart's launch of $20 slimming jeans will be a huge success
Why I spent some of my stimulus check on GE
Why the dollar will keep falling
