yrcw

A late day rally based on imbalance orders and on the Treasury's PPIP winners made a wishy-washy day even that more confusing. The market started out with a slight upside bid, but it never could find its footing. This is probably due to continued earnings jitters ahead of earnings season.

Continued oil inventory data and continued worries about regulating the commodities markets were based around how much speculators can really control.

Here were the unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 8,184.68 +21.08 (0.26%)
S&P 500 880.29 -0.74 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,749.09 +2.92 (0.17%)

Top Upgrades and Downgrades

Today was another one of those days where you were never really sure of the bias or tone of the market as it started strong, gave all the gains back, tried to rally, and then gave back all the gains and then some. There were too many moving parts not acting in unison.

The FOMC noted that it was going keep buying securities and there was no hint of higher rates, yet oil inventories fell again and sent commodity prices higher.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 8,424.91 -49.94 (-0.59%)
S&P 500 903.81 -4.32 (-0.48%)
Nasdaq 1,727.28 -7.26 (-0.42%)

Top Analyst Calls

With gasoline prices plummeting, I see that every major state has enacted some form of an emergency gas tax to help fill the diminishing coffers and patch up gaping holes in budgets. It may be one of those rare bits of good news stemming from the radical deflation of commodities. I am surprised that California doesn't have one, and I figure that New Jersey, one of the states with horrible finances (perhaps among the worst, although not rivaling California or Michigan), will put one in place shortly.

I think we continually underestimate the impact of still lower gasoline prices on a host of industries. Ford (NYSE: F) (Cramer's Take) could get a windfall because it still has a big line of heavy duty gas guzzlers that are immensely popular. General Motors (NYSE: GM) (Cramer's Take) is a hard call because of its ownership structure, although I am sure it will pop with the GMAC deal. I'd sell it.

If United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS) (Cramer's Take) had any traffic, it has a huge fuel surcharge that it can slowly diminish to help the margins. YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ: YRCW) (Cramer's Take) had a great one, but I think that company is now a goner. Obviously, I have already discussed the retail benefit, but it looks like that didn't matter much.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded shares of Red Hat (NYSE:RHT) to Buy from Hold after their checks indicated Red Hat's November quarter results will be in-line due to solid Jboss sales. The firm also believes a potential new partnership with Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) could provide share upside.
  
• Barclays upgraded Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) to Overweight from Equal Weight as they believe the company's competitive position will strengthen during the current downturn and that the company will gain share.
• JP Morgan upgraded YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ:YRCW) to Neutral from Underweight following the announcement that the company and the Teamsters will vote on contract modifications.
• Del Monte Foods (NYSE:DLM) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Stephens.
  
• Thomson Reuters (NYSE:TRI) was upgraded at Morgan Stanley to Equal Weight from Underweight.
  
• Reliant Energy (NYSE:RRI) was lifted to Outperform from Market Perform at Wachovia.

Analyst downgrades:

• B. Riley downgraded shares of Hot Topic (NASDAQ:HOTT) to Neutral from Buy to reflect a lack of visibility into 2009 and valuation but raised their target price to $9.30 from $8.20.
• Citigroup cut KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ:KLAC) to Hold from Buy to reflect their more offensive stance on the semi group as they view KLA-Tencor as a more defensive name. The firm lowered their target to $22 from $31.
• KeyBanc downgraded Arch Chemicals (NYSE:ARJ) to Underweight from Hold citing global economic headwinds, the stronger dollar, pension costs, and continued weakness in North American housing, among other reasons.
  
• Jo Ann Stores (NYSE:JAS) was cut to Hold from Buy at Soleil.
• Calyon downgraded Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB) to Outperform from Buy.
• Amdocs (NYSE:DOX) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman.

Today's market moves almost felt irrational and counter-intuitive. We had a global coordinated rate cut from the U.S., Canada, the U.K, The ECB, Switzerland, and China. Some might have thought this would create a 1,000 point rally, but many sellers are still winning out and the intra-day volatility was more than present.

The DJIA opened down around 200 points, rallied to being up roughly 200 points, went negative again to roughly the same levels, and then staged an afternoon rally. And then the selling came on again at the end of the day. Historically, this is what traders would look for as capitulation. Unfortunately, these are extremely unusual times and history books are of little use.

Here were the unofficial closing bell levels:

• DJIA 9,245.76 -201.35 -2.13%
• S&P500 983.96 -12.27 -1.23%
• NASDAQ 1,740.33 -14.55 -0.83%
• 10YR T-Note 3.713% (+0.207%)
• 52-week lows (major list)

Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) sold its 455 million shares secondary offering at $22.00, yet selling took shares down to under $20.00 early in the day. Shares were down almost 8% at $21.95 right before the close.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Comcast, Time Warner Cable, YRC Worldwide and Syniverse were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Soleil upgraded shares of Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) to Buy from Hold on improving fundamentals, as they believe the economic stimulus package should drive consumer demand in 2H08.
  
• Stephens upgraded shares of YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ: YRCW) to Overweight from Underweight as they believe management is making meaningful changes.
  
• Syniverse (NYSE: SVR) was raised to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan. The firm upgraded shares based on accelerating organic growth from consumer wireless data usage.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Deutsche Bank upgraded NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) to Buy from Hold.
  
• VASCO Data Security (NASDAQ: VDSI) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies.
  
• Goldman upgraded Lukoil (OTC: LUKOY) to Buy from Neutral.

Old Dominion Freight Line (NASDAQ: ODFL) is a less-than-truckload multi-regional motor carrier, providing direct service to 47 states within the South, Northeast, Midwest and West regions of the U.S.A. and to parts of Canada. Through marketing and carrier relationships, it provides service to and from the remaining states, as well as international services around the globe. The company operates a fleet of some 4,600 tractors and 17,900 trailers from nearly 200 service centers. YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ: YRCW) is a major competitor.

Old Dominion surprised the Street last week, with Q4 EPS of 42 cents and revenues of $358.7 million. Analysts had been expecting 42 cents and $345.3 million. Management also guided FY08 EPS to $2.00-$2.05 ($1.93 consensus).

Goodrich (NYSE: GR), a supplier of components, systems and services to the commercial and general aviation airplane markets, is recently up $1.14 to $68.20 on unconfirmed takeover chatter. GR has market of $8.4 billion with long term debt of $1.7 billion. GR October 70 calls have traded 41 times on transaction volume of 884 contracts above its open interest of 449 contracts. GR October option implied volatility of 29 is above its 26-week average of 25 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risk.

YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ: YRCW), a transportation holding company with brands including Yellow Transportation, Roadway, Reimer Express, Meridian IQ, New Penn, USF Holland and USF Reddaway, is recently up $0.45 to $28.25 on unconfirmed chatter Deutsche Post has made a $41 bid for YRCW. YRCW has a market cap of $1.5 billion with $903 million in long-term debt. YRCW call option volume of 5,697 contracts compares to put volume of 319 contracts. YRCW October option implied volatility of 45 is above its 26-week average of 34 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Expedia (EXPE), YRC Worldwide (YRCW), Fiserv (FISV), and select radio stocks were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• JP Morgan upgraded Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE) to Overweight from Neutral on expectations for U.S. bookings growth and margin stabilization.

• YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ: YRCW) was raised to Neutral from Underperform based on valuation.

• Fiserv (NASDAQ: FISV) was upgraded to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC following the CheckFree (CKFR) acquisition.

• Banc of America upgraded Citadel Broadcasting (NYSE: CDL), Cox Radio (NYSE: CXR) and Entercom Comm (NYSE: ETM) to Neutral from Sell as they believe it is time to cover short positions with the expected Q3 weakness likely priced into shares. They caution that this upgrade is not a buy signal as downside risk remains...

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Wachovia upgraded Cabela's (NYSE: CAB) and KBR Inc (NYSE: KBR) to Outperform from Market Perform.

• Baird raised Lear (NYSE: LEA) To Outperform from Neutral.

• Nokia (NYSE: NOK) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.

• Pacific Crest upgraded shares of eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) to Outperform from Sector Perform.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Amazon.com (AMZN), YRC Worldwide (YRCW), SanDisk (SNDK), Activision (ATVI), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) and KB Home (KBH) were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• BWS Financial cut Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) shares to Sell from Hold on valuation.

• YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ: YRCW) was assumed with an Underweight rating, down from Neutral, as JP Morgan is cautious on the industry's L-T-L pricing.

• UBS downgraded SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) to Neutral from Buy on valuation.

• Gabelli downgraded shares of Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) to Hold from Buy to reflect their expectation of increasing competition for some of the company's key titles.

• Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) was downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at HSBC on valuation.

• Matrix believes the prolonged weakness in the housing market is eliminating economic profits and cut KB Home (NYSE: KBH) to Strong Sell from Sell...

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Citigroup and ABN Amro cut Rio Tinto Group (NYSE: RTP) to Hold from Buy.

• Merrill Lynch downgraded J.M. Smucker (NYSE: SJM) to Sell from Neutral.

• First Albany downgraded shares of Travelzoo (NASDAQ: TZOO) to Neutral from Buy.

• Matrix downgraded Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) to Hold from Buy.

• AG Edwards downgraded Aetna (NYSE: AET) to Hold from Buy.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

It's been a month since YRC Worldwide's (NASDAQ: YRCW) annual shareholder meeting, when CEO Bill Zollars said that he would look to the East for future expansion. Look no further:

Yesterday, YRC announced that it has entered a preliminary deal to acquire Shanghai Jiayu Logistics Limited, one of the largest providers of less-than-truckload ground transportation services in China.

The push into China more than doubles the size of YRC Worldwide in that country, from 1,400 employees to more than 3,000. While details of the transaction were not provided, Zollers said earlier this year that acquisitions in China would cost up to $100 million. With more than 30,000 customers, 1,600 employees, 300 tractors and a network of over 3,000 vehicles in Shanghai's possession, YRC Worldwide found a steal.

When comparing the assets to MeridianIQ, the Company's logistics segment -- now called YRC Logistics -- it's monumental. YRC Logistics has 18,000 transactional and 350 contractual customers around the globe and accounted for 6% of YRC Worldwide's total operating revenue in 2006 ($162.5B). Today's acquisition more than doubles the assets and overall customers of the Logistics segment alone, with the bulk now in China. Zollers said he expects to see significant revenues from China to hit the bottom line in 2008.

The transportation giant already has a jointly-owned air freight importer and a jointly-owned logistics' company in the region, but the acquisitions are far from over. Zollars told analysts back in March to expect two acquisitions this year, a ground hauler and a logistics company.

One down, one to go.

Kevin Shult is a writer for TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required)

MOST NOTEWORTHY: YRC Worldwide (YRCW), BEA Systems (BEAS), Isle of Capri Casinos (ISLE), Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) and Avaya (AV) were today's more noteworthy downgrades:

• Wachovia downgraded YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ: YRCW) to Market Perform from Outperform citing the challenging LTL freight environment and continued integration issues.

• UBS downgraded shares of BEA Systems (NASDAQ: BEAS) to Neutral from Buy on valuation as they believe expectations for a takeover or investor activism is already priced into shares.

• Matrix believes Isle of Capri (NASDAQ: ISLE) is expensive on a performance-adjusted basis and recommends investors sell shares into the recent rally, downgrading shares to Sell from Hold.

• JP Morgan cut Assured Guaranty (NYSE: AGO) to Underweight from Neutral on valuation.

• JMP Securities downgraded Avaya (NYSE: AV) to Market Perform from Strong Buy, as the firm doesn't expect a superior offer to the Silver Lake/TPG bid...

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• MicroChip Technology (NASDAQ: MCHP) was cut to Market Perform from Outperform at Piper Jaffray.

• Morgan Stanley downgraded Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN) to Equal Weight from Overweight.

• Baird downgraded Authorize.net Holdings (NASDAQ: ANET) to Neutral from Outperform.

• Morgan Keegan downgraded Inter-Tel Inc (NASDAQ: INTL) to Market Perform from Outperform.

• Stifel cut Dover Downs Gaming & Entertainment (NYSE: DDE) to Sell from Hold.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ: YRCW) -- implied volatility and call spike on LBO speculation.
YRCW, a transportation holding company with brands including Yellow Transportation, Roadway, Reimer Express, Meridian IQ, New Penn, USF Holland and USF Reddaway, is recently up $0.49 to $40.03 on LBO speculation. YRCW will be speaking at Merrill Lynch's Transportation Conference next week. YRCW has a market cap of $2.2 billion with $1 billion in debt. YRCW reported quarterly March 2007 revenue of $2.3 billion. YRCW call option volume of 6,382 contracts compares to put volume of 207 contracts. YRCW June option implied volatility is at 44, July is at 36 above its 26-week average of 32 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

Biomet (NASDAQ: BMET) -- implied volatility-risk increases into June 8th shareholder vote.
BMET a designer, manufacturer and marketer of joint replacement products announced on 12/18/06 a consortium including the Blackstone Group, Goldman Sachs and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts will purchase BMET for $44 a share in cash. Institutional Shareholder Services recommended BMET holders vote down the $10.9 billion private equity deal. BMET shareholders are to vote on 6/8/07. Indiana state law requires a 75% vote for the acquisition to be approved. BMET over all option implied volatility of 17 is above its 5-month average of 12 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Option volume leaders today are: Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT).

Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Transportation company YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW) issued 1Q earnings news...and about the only good news was that there were any earnings at all. The numbers, however, do not tell the full story. Like all other trucking transportation companies, YRC Worldview was beset by slack demand, horrible winter weather and rising fuel costs.

In YRC's case, most of the decline in earnings was due to acquisition and reorganization charges to complete the purchase of USF Reddaway and USF Bestway. Operating revenue was $2.3 billion, not much changed from 1Q 2006 operating revenue of $2.4 billion. But operating income of $20 million for 1Q 2007 was a drop of $68 million from 1Q 2006. Diluted EPS for 1Q 2007 was $.02 compared with 1Q 2006 diluted EPS of $.71. Ouch!

The 1Q 2007 EPS figure includes $.17 per share impact due to severe winter weather, but excludes $.18 reorganization charges. It will take several more quarters for YRC Worldwide to right itself.

Given the numbers for 1Q, YRC Worldwide has revised its FY guidance. It now forecasts adjusted, diluted EPS of $4.00-$4.20 with consolidated revenue of over $10 billion. Interest expense is a best guess estimate at $90 million, with capital expenditures running $375-$400 million. The company will continue to focus on cost reduction strategies. Not surprisingly, the stock was down $.69 on the earnings news, closing recently at $38.74.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Barron's Online's "Inside Scoop" column reported that Hess Corporation (NYSE: HES) CEO John Hess recently bought more $1M worth of Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW), and now directly owns 23,350 DOW shares.
• The Financial Times reported that the European Union is concerned that Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) may be skirting European privacy laws by keeping data on Internet searches for too long.

OTHER PAPERS:

• The U.S. Navy awarded an $11.9M contract to Force Protection Inc (NASDAQ: FRPT) to build and deliver 14 next-generation armored vehicles, according to the Associated Press.
• From BusinessWeek's "Inside Wall Street" section:
  
• In spite of its problems, Amgen Inc (NASDAQ: AMGN) is a long-term value play, according to Joseph Battipaglia, chief investment officer at Ryan Beck's Washington Crossing Advisors unit.
• Bioenvision Inc (NASDAQ: BIVN) is attracting big investors because the company has teamed up with biotech biggie Genzyme Corporation (NASDAQ: GENZ) to develop clofarabine, a treatment for leukemia in children.
  
• Big truckers see YRC Worldwide Inc (NASDAQ: YRCW) as a tempting asset play with "compelling earnings power and potential value," according to Justin Yagerman of Wachovia Securities.